Greater ADAS Functionality Will Restart the Industry After the Coronavirus Crisis
The auto industry has seen the impact of the coronavirus crisis evolve from a supply shock to a global demand shock. The production of new cars is expected to decline by 30% compared to the 2019 production level. The direction of the automotive industry towards the four major mega trends of connected, autonomous, shared and electric driving is expected to remain unchanged going forward. However, the speed of adoption might change due to the emergency. Electrification will be the main focus for OEMs as restrictions and associated penalties on CO2 emissions should remain valid.
The second target for OEMs will be related to the development of Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) for safety and automated driving features. The development of advanced emergency braking systems (AEB) is a great step to avoid forward collisions but is still perfectible, as demonstrated by the American Automobile Association (AAA) in October 2019. Automated driving features in traffic jams or on the highway will also be developed by OEMs as consumers are looking for these to ease driving. The development of such features will be a way for OEMs to differentiate themselves.
To do so, the addition of more sensors, more computing power and a new electric/electronic (E/E) architecture will be required. Audi and Tesla have initiated this trend using a combination of radars, cameras and a LiDAR in Audi’s case. To fuse the data generated Audi and Aptiv developed a domain controller, the zFAS, for front sensors. Tesla goes one step further in the development of domain controllers with its Autopilot hardware. Autopilot is much more complex and has more functionality, with the ability to perform frequent over-the-air (OTA) software updates. Innovation brought by such features will be a key differentiation factor for OEMs looking to relaunch the market.
This report presents a complete overview of E/E architecture and its possible evolution, including details on the computing power needed for data fusion.
A Sensor Market Worth $22.4 Billion in 2025, Led by Radars
The production of vehicles will be heavily impacted by the coronavirus crisis. It is expected that three years will be needed to recover and get back to the same level of output. In 2020, it is expected that the global market for radars, cameras, LiDARs and computing ADAS should reach $8.7B. Almost half of this market revenue will be generated by radars with $3.8B, followed by cameras with $3.5B. LiDARs will not be significant, accounting for $0.04B and computing ADAS will generate $1.4B.
With high penetration rates of radars and cameras in cars, the associated market revenues will recover rapidly from the coronavirus crisis. Radar market revenue is expected to surpass 2019’s revenue in 2021 and will reach $9.1B in 2025 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 19%. Camera market revenue will also surpass 2019’s revenue in 2021 and will reach $8.1B in 2025 at a CAGR of 18%. Market revenue from computing ADAS is expected to reach $3.6B in 2025 at a CAGR of 21%.
LiDAR market revenue is quite limited today as only one OEM like BMW or Volvo are implementing this sensor as an option in some of its cars. Other OEMs are expected to follow in coming years, but the implementation will remain limited to high-end vehicles, and therefore limited volumes are expected. In this context, LiDAR market revenue is expected to reach $1.7B in 2025 at a CAGR of 113%. LiDAR is a complex sensor for OEMs and Tier-1s to integrate and radars and cameras are, at the same time, continuously improving their performance.
This reports presents the main sensors needed for ADAS and their associated market revenue for the period 2020 – 2025, with details concerning the industry related to each sensor.
