The RF GaN market, in the past few years, has experienced impressive growth and has transformed the RF power industry. By the end of 2017, the size of the total RF GaN market was close to $380 million.
The penetration rate in various markets, and in particular telecom and defense applications, had a breakout period in the last two years. According to a recent report by Yole Développement, the compound annual growth rate in these two markets is more than 20%. Another significant boost will occur around 2019 - 2020, led by the implementation of 5G networks. The total RF GaN market size is expected to be a factor of 3.4 larger by the end of 2023, posting a 22.9% CAGR from 2017-2023. The report - RF GaN Market: Applications, Players, Technology, and Substrates 2018-2023 - describes GaN’s presence and development in different markets, including wireless infrastructure, defense and aerospace, satellite communication, wired broadband, both in coaxial cables used in cable TV (CATV) and fiber-to-the-home, and other industrial, scientific and medical (ISM) radio band applications. It looks at GaN devices developed and implemented in applications spanning radar, base transceiver stations, CATV, very small aperture terminal (VSAT) satellite ground stations, and jammers.
Telecom and Defense Markets will be the Driving Force
Yole Développement envisions telecom and defense markets acting as the mainstay of the industry. The telecom market, thanks to the increasing development pace of 5G networks, will bring a huge opportunity for GaN devices beginning in 2018. Compared to existing silicon LDMOS and GaAs solutions, GaN devices are able to deliver the power/efficiency level required for next generation high frequency telecom networks. Also, GaN’s broadband capability is one of the key elements for enabling important new technologies, such as multi-band carrier aggregation.
GaN HEMTs have been the candidate technology for future macro base station power amplifiers. Yole Développement estimates most sub-6 GHz macro network cell implementation will use GaN devices because LDMOS can no longer hold up at such high frequencies and GaAs is not optimum for high power applications. However, because small cells do not need such high power, existing technology like GaAs still has advantages. At the same time, market volumes will increase faster because higher frequencies reduce the coverage of each base station, and thus more base station and thus transistors will be required.
The defense market has been the major driving force for GaN development in the past decades. Originating in the US Department of Defense, GaN devices have been implemented in new generation aerial and ground radars. Its high power capability improves detection range and resolution, and designers are becoming increasingly familiar with this new technology. Nevertheless, this military-related technology is very sensitive. And as GaN devices are becoming popular in defense applications, the development of the nonmilitary part could be affected. This is especially true in terms of mergers and acquisitions. Governments could block deals if businesses target military applications, as in Aixtron’s acquisition by FGC Investment Fund, or Wolfspeed’s by Infineon.
Which is the Right Way to Develop: Integrated or Foundry-Based Manufacturing? GaN-On-SiC or GaN-On-Silicon?
After decades of development, GaN technology is now accessible across different continents. Leading players include Sumitomo Electric, Wolfspeed (Cree), Qorvo, as well as many other players in US, Europe and Asia. Compound semiconductors differ from the traditional silicon-based semiconductor industry. The epitaxy process is much more important than conventional silicon processes, affecting the quality of the active region, with a huge impact on device reliability. That’s the reason why today leading companies are strong in these processes and would love to have internal production capacity, keeping technology know-how secret.
Nevertheless, fabless design houses are developing very fast with their foundry partners to provide GaN technology. With their good relationship and sales channels, leading players like NXP and Ampleon might change the competitive landscape. At the same time, there are also two competing technologies in the market: GaN-on-SiC and GaN-on-silicon. They use different materials as their substrates but share similar characteristics. In the theory, GaN-on-SiC has better performance and today most players are using this technology. However, companies like M/A-COM are pushing GaN-on-Silicon to be implemented in various applications. It is still early, but for now GaN-on-silicon remains a challenger to the incumbent GaN-on-SiC solution.
Yole’s previous report covered several different scenarios and their potential impact on the overall RF GaN market and its players. In this new version they develop different scenarios, and present a new perspective on the market’s size. Click here to read the report.
